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East Asia Update ? November 2006
East Asia Update - November 2006

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China: Key Indicators
                                                                           
  2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 /p   2004   2007/p           2005 2006     2006
  Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4   Q1 Q2 Q3 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar May June  July Aug Sep Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Nov Dec Jan Feb Jun Jul Aug Sep
Output, Employment and Prices                                                                          
GDP ( % change previous year) 8.4 8.3 9.1 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 9.8 9.6 9.2 9.5 9.6 9.9 10.0 9.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 11.1 10.3 11.3 10.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Industrial production index (value-added) 9.8 8.7 10.0 12.8 11.5 11.6 12.0 17.7 17.7 15.8 16.0 11.0 16.2 16.6 16.1 14.8 14.4 20.9 7.6   16.6 16.8 16.1 16 16.5 16.7 16.7 18.5 16.2 16.6 16.5 16.2 .. 19.5 16.7 15.7 16.1
Unemployment rate (%) /1 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Real wage growth 11.4 15.2 15.5 12.0 10.5 12.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. 12.1 11.5 12.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Consumer price index (% change, previous year) 0.4 0.7 -0.8 1.2 3.9 1.8 1.7 2.8 4.4 5.3 3.2 2.1 2.8 1.7 1.3 2.8 2.4 1.9 3.9 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.9 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.5
Public Sector                                                                          
Government balance (% GDP)  -3.6 -2.8 -3.0 -2.5 -1.5 -1.3 -1.0 .. .. .. .. -0.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Domestic public sector debt (% GDP)/7 17.7 16.9 18.3 18.6 18.0 17.5 16.5 .. .. .. .. 16.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Foreign Trade, BOP and External Debt                                                                          
Trade balance ($US billion) 24.1 34.0 44.1 44.8 59.0 134.2 170.0 -8.4 1.6 10.8 28.0 174.4 16.5 23.1 28.8 9.9 11.2 6.5 4.6 0.0 9.0 9.7 10.6 10.1 8.0 33.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Exports of goods ($US billion) 249.2 266.1 325.6 438.4 593.4 762.5 948.3 115.7 142.5 158.2 177.1 1113.8 155.9 186.5 204.1 60.9 63.8 50.8 44.5   58.4 66 65.6 67.7 70.7 215.6 197.3 231.4 262.7 72.1 75.4 65 54.15 81.3 80.3 90.8 91.6
   (% change, previous year)/2 27.9 6.8 22.4 34.6 35.4 28.4 24.4 -87.8 23.1 11.0 12.0 17.5 34.7 31.0 29.1 45.9 32.7 42.1 30.8 30.2 30.6 28.5 33.2 27.2 21.7 26.6 24 29 18.4 18.3 28.1 22.3 23.3 22.6 32.8 30.5
Key export  (% change, previous year) /3 32.0 7.2 23.9 35.8 37.0 29.0 26.1 36.1 37.8 35.8 37.1 18.2 34.7 31.4 29.5 .. .. .. ..   31.6 31.1 28.7 .. .. 22.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Imports of goods ($US billion) 225.1 232.1 281.5 393.6 534.4 628.3 740.9 124.1 140.8 147.4 149.1 892.4 139.4 163.4 175.3 51.0 52.6 44.3 39.9 49.4 56.3 55 57.6 62.7 182 165.3 203.4 214 61.7 64.3 55.5 51.7 66.6 65.7 71.9 76.4
   (% change, previous year)/2 35.8 8.2 21.2 39.8 35.8 17.6 17.9 42.3 43.0 30.8 30.5 20.7 12.3 16.1 19.1 38.5 24.3 23.9 -0.1   15.6 15.7 12.1 23.5 23.4 22.1 24.8 18.3 21.9 20.9 22.3 25.4 29.6 18.3 19.7 24.6 22
Current account balance  ($US billion ) 20.5 17.4 35.4 45.9 68.7 160.8 223.4 .. .. .. .. 226.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
   (% GDP) 1.7 1.3 2.4 2.8 3.6 5.6 8.5 .. .. .. .. 7.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Foreign direct investment (US$ billion)/4 40.8 47.1 52.7 55.5 60.9 86.1 76.3 14.1 19.8 14.8 11.9 67.0 13.4 15.2 14.6 3.9 3.1 4.1 3.9 4.9 6.2 4.5 4.9 5.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Total external debt ($US billion) 145.7 184.8 186.1 208.5 247.5 281.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
   (% GDP) 13.5 13.9 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Short-term debt ($US billion) 13.1 56.3 65.7 88.1 115.8 148.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Debt service ratio (% exports of g&s) 9.7 7.4 7.8 7.9 3.7 3.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Reserves, including gold ($US billion) 168.9 216.3 292.0 409.2 615.5 822.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
   (months of imports of goods and services) 6.7 9.4 10.5 10.6 12.0 13.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Total reserves excl. gold ($US billion) 168.3 215.6 291.1 408.2 614.5 821.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 821.5 877.6 943.6 987.9 .. .. .. .. 943.6 957.1 972.0 987.9
Financial Markets                                                                          
Domestic credit  (% change, previous year, nominal) 11.0 13.6 29.3 19.6 9.2 11.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. 8.8 10.2 11.4 .. .. .. .. 8.2 10.2 10.9 .. .. 10.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Short-term interest rate (less than 20 days)/5 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.7 3.3 3.3 .. 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 .. 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
Exchange rate (end-period)  8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.1 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 7.8 8.3 8.3 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.1 .. 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.9
Real effective exchange rate ( + = appn) 2000=100 100.0 104.8 101.9 94.5 91.9 91.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. 92.5 94.0 97.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
   (% change, previous year) 2.6 4.8 -2.8 -7.3 -2.8 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. -1.2 -2.4 1.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Stock market index  (Dec. 19, 1990=100), close/6 1968.8 1870.4 1358.6 1154.0 871.8 787.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. 886.0 787.0 787.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Memo: GDP (US$ billion) 1198.4 1324.8 1453.8 1641.0 1931.7 2234.3 2669.2 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 3043.2 458.4 507.5 553.0 .. ..       .. .. .. .. .. 948.3 542.4 600.7 633.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
                                                                           
p = projection
1/ Official unemployment only, not including laid-off workers
2/ Norminal growth rate
3/ Manufactured exports
4/ Gross FDI
5/ Central Bank loans to financial institutions
6/ Shanghai Stock Exchange High Comprehensive Index (A share, Dec.19, 1990 =100)
7/ Includes treasury bond, policy financial bond and other financial bond (end-period outstanding)
 

 
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