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East Asia Update ? November 2006
East Asia Update - November 2006

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Thailand: Key Indicators
                                                                         
  2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 e/ 2006 p/ 2007 p/ 2005 2006   2006
  Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1  Q2 Q3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Output, Employment and Prices                                                                        
GDP (% change, previous year) 4.8 2.2 5.3 7.0 6.2 4.5 4.5 4.6 3.2 4.6 5.4 4.7 6.1 4.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Industrial production index (2000=100) 100.0 102.7 112.0 127.6 142.6 155.5 .. .. 152.2 152.9 156.7 160.2 167.0 162.9 .. 147.8 143.4 165.5 147.2 153.5 158.1 152.7 154.4 163.0 159.9 157.9 162.8 156.5 162.3 182.2 153.2 167.1 168.3 162.3 165.9 ..
   (% change, previous year) 6.7 2.7 9.1 13.9 11.7 9.1 .. .. 6.4 11.4 11.5 7.2 9.7 6.5 .. 6.0 1.4 11.7 9.1 10.9 14.1 8.6 14.9 11.1 7.8 7.7 6.1 5.9 13.2 10.1 4.1 8.8 6.5 6.3 7.4 ..
Unemployment rate (%)  3.6 3.3 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.8 .. .. 2.5 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.7 .. 3.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.2 1.4 2.2 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.4 ..
Real wage growth (%) 1/ -1.4 -0.57 -1.5 0.4 -0.4 2.4 .. .. 3.4 4.1 1.9 0.0 0.5 7.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Consumer price index (% change, previous year) 1.7 1.6 0.6 1.8 2.8 4.5 .. .. 2.8 3.7 5.6 6.0 5.7 6.0 .. 2.7 2.5 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.2 5.9 4.4 3.8 ..
Public Sector                                                                        
Government balance (% GDP) 2/ -2.2 -2.4 -1.4 0.4 0.1 -0.6 .. .. -1.0 4.8 -0.1 -5.7 -1.5 5.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Domestic public sector debt (% GDP) 3/ 39.8 39.9 38.8 37.1 38.2 38.1 .. .. 35.3 36.2 37.7 38.1 34.1 34.8 .. 34.7 34.9 35.3 35.2 35.9 36.2 36.5 37.1 37.7 37.6 37.6 38.1 34.3 34.2 34.1 34.0 34.2 34.8 34.9 .. ..
Foreign Trade, BOP and External Debt                                                                        
Trade balance (US$ million)          5,466         2,494     2,739      3,759     1,460 -8,530 -1,654 -4,402 -3,071.2 -4,894.4 199.3 -763.3 -224.5 -1,704.6 .. -1,478.6 -520.5 -1,072.1 -1,669.0 -1,495.8 -1,729.6 -298.1 -277.5 774.9 -375.0 -206.4 -181.9 -388.1 -23.6 187.2 -520.3 -759.7 -424.5 -222.9 271.2 ..
Exports of goods (fob, US$ million)        67,889       63,070   66,092    78,105  94,941 109,193 126,664 140,597 24,725 26,377 29,700 28,391 29,091 30,592 .. 7,674.3 7,670.1 9,380.2 8,182.8 9,019.0 9,175.3 9,385.6 10,025.2 10,289.1 9,403.5 9,671.1 9,316.5 8,807.1 9,425.1 10,859.3 9,121.5 10,708.1 10,762.4 11,042.8 11,728.0 ..
   (% change, previous year) 19.5 -7.1 4.8 18.2 21.6 15.0 16.0 11.0 12.7 14.1 22.3 10.9 17.7 16.0 .. 11.5 6.3 19.7 15.8 14.6 12.3 19.0 24.4 23.3 7.7 13.7 11.2 14.8 22.9 15.8 11.5 18.7 17.3 17.7 17.0 ..
Key exports: Rice and rubber (% change in US$, previous yr) 1.8 -8.1 15.9 37.1 32.5 -1.4 .. .. 4.5 -9.0 4.7 -4.9 23.7 33.9 .. 15.1 -1.8 0.9 -4.7 -0.5 -20.1 -17.2 3.7 33.7 -13.2 5.3 -6.4 8.4 33.2 30.7 34.0 28.8 39.5 78.2 28.1 ..
Imports of goods (cif, US$ million)        62,423       60,576   63,353    74,346  93,481 117,722 -128,317 -144,999 27,796 31,272 29,501 29,154 29,316 32,297 .. 9,153.0 8,190.6 10,452.3 9,851.8 10,514.8 10,905.0 9,683.7 10,302.7 9,514.2 9,778.5 9,877.5 9,498.4 9,195.2 9,448.7 10,672.0 9,641.9 11,467.8 11,186.9 11,265.6 11,456.8 ..
   (% change, previous year) 31.3 -3.0 4.6 17.4 25.7 25.9 9.0 13.0 27.9 33.9 22.8 19.6 5.5 3.3 .. 32.8 22.7 28.0 32.0 34.3 35.3 24.5 23.6 20.4 20.2 13.7 25.6 0.5 15.4 2.1 -2.1 9.1 2.6 16.3 11.2 ..
Current account balance  (US$ million) 9328 6205 7,008 7,965 6,865 -3,666 3,156 108 -1,345 -4,366 1,149 897 1,656 -1,153 .. -945.9 181.8 -581.2 -1515.1 -1438.9 -1411.6 208.8 106.4 833.4 65.3 436.4 395.3 504.4 666.2 485.5 -282.7 -935.5 64.9 308.5 812.6 ..
   (% GDP) 7.5 5.4 5.5 5.6 4.2 -2.0 1.5 0.0 -3.0 -10.3 2.6 1.9 3.4 -2.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Foreign direct investment, net (US$ million) 4/ 2,813 3,873 1,023 1,882 814 3,098 .. .. 265 1,203 620 1,009 3,131 911 .. 30.9 93.9 140.7 338.0 338.7 526.4 294.5 260.9 65.0 209.4 294.6 504.7 1498.2 -113.2 1746.0 417.9 308.2 185.2 381.9 .. ..
Total external debt (US$ million) 5/ 79,715 67,509 59,459 51,783 51,312 52,040 .. .. 50,661 51,115 53,019 52,040 57,719 57,826 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
   (% GDP) 66.7 56.1 48.8 40.3 35.7 32.4 .. .. 34.1 33.6 34.0 32.4 34.9 33.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Short-term debt (US$ million) 5/ 14,694 13,389 11,919 10,904 12,174 16,014 .. .. 14,195 15,814 16,820 16,014 19,130 17,838 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..              
Debt service ratio (% exports of goods and services) 6/ 15.4 20.8 19.6 16.0 8.5 10.8 .. .. 12.8 8.1 9.5 12.8 9.1 6.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Reserves, including gold (US$ million) 32,661 33,048 38,924 42,148 49,832 52,066 .. .. 48,681 48,357 49,795 52,066 55,266 58,057 ##### 48,916.9 49,696.1 48,681.1 49,237.2 48,184.6 48,357.3 48,414.2 49,382.3 49,795.2 49,802.1 50,748.9 52,065.9 53,228.6 54,403.0 55,265.8 57,249.9 57,721.0 58,057.4 58,796.3 59,355.7 61,592.7
  (months of imports of goods) 6.3 6.5 7.4 6.8 6.4 5.3 .. .. 5.3 4.6 5.1 5.4 5.7 5.4 .. 5.3 6.1 4.7 5.0 4.6 4.4 5.0 4.8 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.9 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.2 ..
Financial Markets                                                                        
Domestic credit (% change, previous year) 6/ -8 -4.6 3.6 4.3 7.4 7.7 .. .. 6.8 6.1 7.5 7.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Short-term interest rate (average period) 7/ 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.3 1.0 1.6 .. .. 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.4 4.0 .. 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 ..
Exchange rate (average period)  40.2 44.4 43.0 41.5 40.2 40.2 .. .. 38.6 40.0 41.3 41.0 39.3 38.1 37.6 38.7 38.4 38.6 39.5 39.8 40.9 41.7 41.1 41.0 40.9 41.1 41.0 39.6 39.4 38.9 37.9 38.0 38.3 38.0 37.6 37.4
Real effective exchange rate (1994=100) 82.3 78.1 79.6 78.0 77.7 79.0 .. .. 79.1 78.4 78.5 80.1 82.6 85.2 .. 78.4 79.4 79.4 78.8 78.7 77.6 77.8 78.5 79.2 80.0 80.3 79.9 81.4 82.5 84.0 86.2 84.7 84.7 85.4 85.8 ..
   (% change, previous year) -3.4 -5.1 2.0 -2.1 -0.3 1.6 .. .. -0.2 -0.6 2.3 5.0 4.5 8.7 .. -0.6 0.2 -0.1 -1.3 -0.2 -0.2 1.1 2.6 3.4 5.7 5.9 3.5 3.8 3.9 5.8 9.5 7.7 9.0 9.7 9.4 ..
Stock market index  (Dec 1996=100) 269.2 303.9 356.5 772.2 668.1 713.7 .. .. 681.5 675.5 723.2 713.7 733.3 678.1 686.1 701.9 741.6 681.5 658.9 667.6 675.5 675.7 697.9 723.2 682.6 667.8 713.7 762.6 744.1 733.3 768.3 709.4 678.1 691.5 690.9 686.1
Memo: GDP (US$ billion) 110.8 115.5 126.9 142.9 161.7 176.6 .. .. 44.5 42.3 43.4 46.5 49.1 49.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
                                                                         
e = estimate
p = projection
1/ Average wage of employed person from Labour force survey, National Statistical Office.
2/ Cash balance of central government.
3/ Include domestic central government (CG) debt, domestic debt of non-financial state enterprise and Financial institutions Development fund (FIDF) debt.
4/ Non-Bank FDI
5/ Source: Bank of Thailand
6/ Include those extended by financial institutions
7/ Average interest rates on  time deposits of less than 6 months (percent per annum).

 
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