Global Analysis of the Impact of Policies and Firm Dynamics in Trade

Approved Amount: USD 160,000

Task Team Leader: Ana Margarida Fernandes

Building on the work started with the Exporter Dynamics Database (EDD) – a project partially funded by KCP I – this project aims to expand the research by delving deeper into the functioning of export and import markets at a very micro (firm) level and by looking at the interaction between firm dynamics, firm productivity, and trade and industrial policies. In particular, it will expand the coverage of the EDD (in terms of years and number of countries included) and also merge the exporter-level export data with other firm-level sources of information on imports and domestic production for a number of countries. The final goal is to have a comprehensive firm-level dataset for a number of countries such that, on the one hand, we will be able to compare the links between input-output linkages, exporter dynamics, and productivity across countries; on the other hand, we will also analyze the impact of different policies and shocks on exporters' growth, dynamics, and productivity, applying uniform methodologies that allow for comparisons across countries.

Structural Transformation Analysis with MAMS

Approved Amount: USD 140,000

Task Team Leader: Hans Lofgren

The project is to develop an innovative and replicable approach to analyze country strategies for sector structure transformation, thereby improving the empirical basis for costly, country-level policy decisions. The approach is based on MAMS (Maquette for MDG Simulations, a CGE model for country-level strategy analysis). The innovative aspect is that the indicators from product-space analysis will be incorporated into MAMS, influencing the evolution of sector structure in conjunction with economic policies and world market conditions. The project will analyze the consequences of alternative strategies for transformations toward more flexible, diversified, and income-generating sector structures for developing countries. The project will focus on low-income countries, considering their current state of development and structure of trade and production. As a practical guide to the approach, country case studies will be produced; MAMS training courses will be organized; and papers, data, models, and training materials will be made available online.

Structural Change in a Dynamic World

Approved Amount: USD 200,000

Task Team Leader: Delfin Sia Go

This project will use recent updates of global information regarding the actual structure of the world economy made available from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The project will use the World Bank’s global economic framework to analyze and understand how the interactions of global and country structural change have shaped worldwide economic development during recent decades, and how changes in comparative advantage, globalization, and other factors explain the structure of production, consumption, and trade at the global, regional, and country levels. It aims to strengthen the capacity of global economic analysis in large-scale models through a modified back-casting exercise that replicates the actual global economic structure at two end points. The project will test the methodology and document the findings in order to provide an alternative back-casting approach to draw conclusions and validate key assumptions and parameters in global economic models as well as country or regional applications where two points of structural data are available.

Understanding the Broader Impacts of Transport Infrastructure Investments

Approved Amount: USD 300,000

Task Team Leader: Uwe Deichmann

The project intends to improve understanding of the broader benefits from transport sector investments. It will fund closely related empirical research activities in Bangladesh, China, and India that will analyze the impacts of three different types of public transport infrastructure investments in terms of different non-sector specific outcome variables. It will develop datasets and design and implement analytical methods that will help both ex-post and ex-ante impact evaluation. Particular questions the project intends to answer include: 1) What is the labor market/migration response to the shifts in the spatial patterns of economic activity, wages, and productivity due to the construction and upgrading of China's national expressway network? 2. What are the impacts on the productivity and geography of agricultural production, employment, and welfare due to the construction of the Jamuna Bridge in Bangladesh, which connected a previously isolated and lagging region to the dynamic areas of the country? 3. What have been the changes in land and real estate prices due first to the announcement and subsequently to the construction of the metro system in Delhi, India?